Here's Why Shares in PBF Energy Popped Higher (And are a Great Way to Hedge Geopolitical Conflict)
2026-07-17 10:03
•Lee Samaha •The Motley Fool
•• • Axe Capital view
Why Sasol Could Gain From Refining Pressures
Geopolitical tensions tightening refined fuel supply are boosting refining profits, a trend worth watching in South Africa’s Sasol.
PBF Energy’s recent 10.5% jump and 125% rally in 2026 highlight how refining margins — the gap between crude oil costs and product prices — can soar when supply routes tighten. While PBF profits by refining cheap domestic crude into higher-priced fuels, South African refiner Sasol stands to benefit from similar dynamics, especially with global tensions around the Strait of Hormuz limiting refined product flows. Sasol’s integrated model lets it capitalize on higher fuel prices, and a weaker rand (USD/ZAR) amplifies rand-revenue from dollar-denominated sales. However, if global oil shipments normalize or sanctions ease, margins could compress quickly, pressuring refining earnings here. Still, the current environment favors refineries like Sasol over pure upstream oil plays on the JSE. this is just my opinion and not financial advice
Buy Sasol for exposure to rising refining margins supported by global supply bottlenecks and rand weakness. Keep an eye on USD/ZAR for further currency tailwinds.
- Sasol
- USD/ZAR
- Easing of Strait of Hormuz tensions
- Strengthening of rand reducing rand earnings
7/10
PBF Energy stock rose 10.5% this week and is up nearly 125% in 2026, driven by widening crack spreads (the difference between refined product prices and crude oil prices). The increase is fueled by geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of a memorandum of understanding with Iran, which restricts commercial traffic and reduces global refined product supply. This benefits PBF as a U.S. refiner that can access domestic crude while profiting from higher margins on refined products.
This article was originally published by The Motley Fool and has been adapted here for Axe Capital Trading News.
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Author: Lee Samaha
Categories: Commodities, Geopolitics
Tickers: PBF
Sentiment: Positive - Stock has surged 125% in 2026 and 10.5% this week due to widening crack spreads driven by geopolitical tensions restricting refined product supply. The company benefits from higher margins on refined products while maintaining access to domestic crude oil, making it well-positioned to profit from ongoing supply constraints.
Keywords: PBF Energy, crack spreads, petroleum refining, Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risk, Iran tensions, refined products, crude oil prices
Insights:
- PBF: Positive: Stock has surged 125% in 2026 and 10.5% this week due to widening crack spreads driven by geopolitical tensions restricting refined product supply. The company benefits from higher margins on refined products while maintaining access to domestic crude oil, making it well-positioned to profit from ongoing supply constraints.