SpaceX Isn't Rocket Lab's Biggest Threat Now -- Blue Origin Is
2026-10-04 11:07
•Rich Smith •The Motley Fool
••• ••• Axe Cap view
Blue Origin Surges Ahead, But Rocket Lab’s Iridium Deal Keeps It Afloat
Blue Origin's NASA contract win overshadows Rocket Lab's Mars hopes, yet Rocket Lab's Iridium acquisition offers a lifeline.
Blue Origin scoring the $700 million NASA contract to build a Mars Telecommunications Network marks a shift in the space race that few expected. Rocket Lab losing out—and then protesting the decision—could delay the entire project beyond the 2028 launch window. That’s a blow to Rocket Lab's growth narrative. Still, it’s not game over for them. Their upcoming $8 billion Iridium acquisition, expected to close next year, will bring nearly $900 million in annual revenue and push them into profitability and positive cash flow. While global space plays aren’t directly tied to the JSE, the USD/ZAR relationship offers clues. A strengthening dollar tied to US tech and aerospace might lift pressure on emerging markets like South Africa, but rand volatility remains a wild card. Locally, I’d keep a distant eye rather than jump in. Rocket Lab’s turnaround hinges on completing the Iridium deal, so risks remain high if regulatory or operational issues arise. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Avoid investing directly in these space stocks from South Africa’s perspective; instead, watch USD/ZAR closely for indications of US tech sector momentum. Consider trimming rand-hedged exposure if the dollar rallies too aggressively against the rand.
- USD/ZAR
- RKLB
- Delay in Iridium acquisition closing
- USD strength causing rand depreciation impacting local portfolio stability
5/10
Blue Origin won a $700 million NASA contract to build a Mars Telecommunications Network, beating out Rocket Lab. Rocket Lab has formally protested the award to the Government Accountability Office, arguing NASA's selection process violated congressional eligibility criteria. The dispute could delay the project past the 2028 launch window. However, Rocket Lab's upcoming $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications will make it profitable and cash-flow positive.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.