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If a Stock Market Crash Is Coming, History Says This ETF Could Be the Smartest Buy for Investors

2026-09-29 11:23 •David Dierking •The Motley Fool Positive Axe Cap view: Selective •Equities•Capital Returns •VIG

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Dividend Growth ETFs: A Safer Play Amid Market Uncertainty

Focus on consistent dividend growers instead of chasing market timing or panic selling.

South African investors face a similar dilemma when markets wobble: sell everything and hope to buy back cheaper, or hold quality companies that deliver steady income. History shows timing crashes rarely pays off. Instead, dividend-growth stocks build resilience by offering steady payouts, which can cushion volatile markets. The US Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) captures this strategy with large caps growing dividends for over a decade. On the JSE, companies like Sanlam and Standard Bank echo this approach with strong dividend track records, making them worthy attention. The rand/USD rate also influences returns, so a weaker rand could boost offshore earnings in rand terms. That said, if inflation spikes or economic growth stalls hard locally, even these dividend stalwarts can underperform. Still, in uncertain times, I’d favour dividend growth over grabbing cash and waiting for a crash that may never come. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Buy selected JSE dividend growers like Standard Bank and Sanlam. Use the USD/ZAR as a hedge indicator. Avoid trying to time cash moves in and out of shares.

What I would watch
  • Standard Bank
  • Sanlam
  • USD/ZAR
What could go wrong
  • Local inflation surprises hurting profits
  • Unexpected sharp rand depreciation
How strongly I feel

7/10

Rather than attempting to time the market and move to cash before a crash, investors should focus on buying high-quality dividend-growth stocks. The article recommends the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG) as a strategy to weather bear markets while positioning for long-term gains, noting that historically bull markets significantly outpace bear market declines.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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