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If a Bear Market Is Coming, These Are the 2 Stocks to Avoid -- and the 1 to Own

2026-10-02 10:30 •Johnny Rice •The Motley Fool Mixed Axe Cap view: Selective •Rates•Equities•Earnings•Technology•AI•Semiconductors •ORCL•ORCLPD•CRWV•NVDA•BRK.A•BRK.B

Axe Cap view

Avoid Oracle and CoreWeave if Bears Come; Berkshire Stands Out

Heavy debt loads make Oracle and CoreWeave risky ahead of a possible AI-driven bear market, while Berkshire Hathaway’s cash reserves offer safety.

The chatter about a slowing AI spending surge is more than noise for investors holding high-debt tech names. Oracle’s juggernaut OCI revenue growth hides a troubling cash flow deficit and $125 billion in debt — exposure amplified by reliance on OpenAI, a company burning through billions quarterly. CoreWeave isn’t any sturdier, loaded with debt and tied solely to a niche AI compute rental market vulnerable to sudden drops in demand. Neither fits well in a tighter-money, cautious environment. A far better look is Berkshire Hathaway, sitting on $365 billion in liquid assets. It’s the kind of war chest and operational diversity that lets Berkshire not just weather downturns but scoop up bargains when other players are retreating. For South African investors, this logic underscores why currency strength or weakness (think USD/ZAR levels) will influence appetite for high-debt growth stocks versus cash-rich conglomerates or financials like Standard Bank or Sanlam, which have better balance sheets and less AI exposure. Still, if AI spending remains surprisingly robust or Oracle restructures its debt effectively, the risk here grows. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Trim or avoid high-debt tech-exposed stocks like Oracle and CoreWeave while holding or adding to cash-rich, defensive names such as Berkshire Hathaway. Watch USD/ZAR for entry points given global risk sentiment.

What I would watch
  • ORCL
  • CRWV
  • BRK.B
  • USD/ZAR
What could go wrong
  • AI spending remains strong, supporting Oracle and CoreWeave
  • Unexpected strengthening of the rand reducing hedging costs for local investors
How strongly I feel

7/10

In anticipation of a potential bear market driven by an AI spending slowdown, the article identifies Oracle and CoreWeave as vulnerable stocks due to their heavy reliance on expensive debt to fund growth in AI infrastructure. Conversely, Berkshire Hathaway is positioned as a defensive investment with $365 billion in cash reserves to capitalize on market downturns.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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