SpaceX Stock Has Climbed About 50% Through 6 Insider Share Unlocks. The Biggest Is Still Ahead.
2026-10-13 23:19
•Daniel Sparks •The Motley Fool
••• • Axe Cap view
SpaceX’s Upcoming Share Unlock: Should South African Investors Watch Closely?
Despite a recent 50% gain, SpaceX faces a huge insider share release that may weigh heavily on its stock.
SpaceX is riding high with a 50% gain since August, boosted by strong revenue growth and shrinking losses. However, insider share unlocks are set to significantly increase the traded supply, with 1.3 billion shares expected after Q3 earnings—almost double the August release. While South African investors don't hold SpaceX directly, this development could influence USD/ZAR. Tech sell-offs in the US often trigger rand strength as risk appetite wanes, affecting SA tech-linked counters like Prosus and Naspers. Given the risk of volatility from this large unlock, I’m cautious and prefer to wait before increasing exposure to these names. If the market digests the lockup smoothly, the tech rally could continue, but that’s a risk too. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Avoid chasing US tech-related names heavily linked to SpaceX’s momentum, like Prosus, until the post-lockup period passes. Watch USD/ZAR for any spillover moves as a risk signal.
- USD/ZAR
- Prosus
- lockup sales depressing SpaceX and tech stocks
- rand volatility triggered by tech sentiment shifts
5/10
SpaceX stock has risen approximately 50% since early August despite 2.3 billion employee and insider shares coming out of lockup—nearly 3.6 times the shares sold in its June IPO. While the stock declined on three of six release days with minimal impact, the author warns that the biggest unlock is still ahead: up to 1.3 billion shares (40% larger than August's release) will unlock after third-quarter earnings, potentially bringing tradable shares from 21% to near 40% of total shares by early December.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.