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Quantum Computing Is Still Years Away. These 6 Stocks Show Who Is Closest to Real Revenue.

2026-10-16 13:19 •Micah Zimmerman •The Motley Fool Positive Axe Cap view: Bearish •Equities•Earnings•Technology•AI•Semiconductors•Financials •IBM•IONQ•QBTS•RGTI•RGTIW•GOOG•GOOGL•GOOGM•GOOGN

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Quantum Computation: Waiting for Real Profits

South African investors should steer clear of quantum computing stocks for now, given their distant profitability and reliance on dilution.

Quantum computing sounds exciting but remains a long way from delivering meaningful profits. Globally, even the frontrunners like IBM and IonQ are burning cash faster than they generate revenue. IBM, with its deep pockets and diversified profits, might get there by 2028 or 2029, but most pure plays are still funding operations by selling more shares, a red flag for investors. For JSE-linked investors, there’s almost no direct exposure to this theme—no South African firms in this race. Instead, the best local barometer is the USD/ZAR exchange rate, which tends to reflect global tech sentiment and risk appetite. When the rand weakens against the dollar, global riskier assets like quantum stocks tend to be hit harder. Watch the rand closely, but avoid buying into these quantum stories hoping for short-term gains. The momentum is exciting, but the payoff is a decade away and very uncertain. This could all change if a player surprises with a commercial breakthrough sooner, but that seems unlikely right now. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Avoid direct investment in quantum computing stocks for now. Instead, use USD/ZAR as a sentiment gauge, and consider trimming tech-exposed positions if the rand weakens further.

What I would watch
  • USD/ZAR
What could go wrong
  • Unexpected quantum breakthrough catalyzing profits sooner
  • Sharp rand strengthening masking global tech risk trends
How strongly I feel

6/10

Quantum computing companies remain years away from profitability, with most relying on stock sales rather than customer revenue. IBM has the financial capacity to wait until 2028-2029, IonQ shows real revenue growth but heavy cash burn and dilution, while D-Wave and Rigetti have promising bookings but minimal revenue. Alphabet and Nvidia are positioned as bystanders rather than quantum revenue stories.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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