Where Is the Floor for SpaceX Stock Right Now?
2026-07-25 16:30
•Howard Smith •The Motley Fool
••• • Axe Capital view
Waiting on the Sidelines for SpaceX's IPO Shakeout
SpaceX's stock has dropped steeply from its peak, making now a time for caution rather than rush.
SpaceX’s IPO has been a spectacle, with valuations that stretched far beyond what fundamentals could justify. The stock now trades below its IPO price—a sharp correction reflecting investor skepticism. Since this is a US tech story with no direct JSE equivalent, the rand’s recent strength versus the dollar (USD/ZAR) suggests local investors can afford to bide their time before stepping in. The key dates ahead—the August 4 earnings and August 6 lockup expiration—could swing the stock either way. If insider shares flood the market, expect more pressure. But post-lockup volatility often presents buying spots for patient investors. For South Africans, this means watching USD/ZAR closely; a weaker rand could cushion the blow in local currency terms. Still, if the tech sector’s global momentum falters or SpaceX misses earnings expectations, the stock could suffer further losses. this is just my opinion and not financial advice
I'll wait until after the lockup expires and earnings are out before considering any positions, watching USD/ZAR to gauge local cost risk.
- SPCX
- USD/ZAR
- Earnings miss driving stock lower
- Lockup expiration flooding shares and depressing price
5/10
SpaceX stock has plummeted over $1 trillion from its peak valuation since its IPO, trading around $115 compared to its $135 IPO price and $161 first-day close. The article suggests the initial $1.8 trillion valuation was unjustified by fundamentals, and recommends patient investors wait until after the August 4 earnings report and the August 6 lockup expiration before building positions.
This article was originally published by The Motley Fool and has been adapted here for Axe Capital Trading News.
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Author: Howard Smith
Categories: Equities, Earnings, IPOs
Tickers: SPCX
Sentiment: Negative - Stock has underperformed 90% of comparable IPOs since 2009, lost over $1 trillion in value from peak, and trading below IPO price. Initial valuation of $1.8 trillion was fundamentally unjustified. However, the article suggests potential buying opportunities after lockup expiration on August 6, indicating some long-term optimism despite near-term weakness.
Keywords: IPO performance, valuation correction, lockup expiration, earnings report, space data centers, Starship rockets
Insights:
- SPCX: Negative: Stock has underperformed 90% of comparable IPOs since 2009, lost over $1 trillion in value from peak, and trading below IPO price. Initial valuation of $1.8 trillion was fundamentally unjustified. However, the article suggests potential buying opportunities after lockup expiration on August 6, indicating some long-term optimism despite near-term weakness.