Tesla Is on Pace for Its First Annual Delivery Increase Since 2023. Is the Stock a Buy?
2026-10-05 00:14
•Daniel Sparks •The Motley Fool
••• • Axe Cap view
Tesla’s Delivery Bounce Isn’t Enough at These Prices
Tesla shows delivery growth for the first time since 2023, but its sky-high valuation leaves little room for error.
Tesla just reported deliveries of 486,532 vehicles in Q3 2026, nudging its full-year forecast close to 1.79 million units. On the surface, this is progress after a couple of disappointing years. However, Tesla stock trades at around 165 times forward earnings, a multiple that reflects big hopes for autonomous driving and future profits, not current sales. For a company that’s barely growing deliveries and saw earnings per share fall by 28% last year, the price looks excessive. South African investors might think twice, especially given our domestic demand environment and currency volatility. The rand’s recent softness against the dollar could add pressure for companies reliant on imports or foreign tech investments, Tesla included by proxy through dollar strength. If Tesla’s autonomous ambitions stall or regulatory hurdles arise, the multiple will feel even more stretched. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Avoid Tesla shares for now—wait for the stock to reflect clearer profit growth or a breakthrough in autonomous tech. Better opportunities exist locally, like in financials or commodities, which have more direct rand exposure.
- TSLA
- USD/ZAR
- Tesla's autonomous driving advances may accelerate sooner than expected
- Rand strengthens sharply, easing cost pressures on imports and foreign companies
6/10
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3 2026, putting it on pace for its first annual delivery increase since 2023 with ~1.79 million vehicles expected for the year. However, despite the delivery recovery, the stock trades at 165x forward earnings, which the analyst argues is too expensive for a car business merely returning to 2024 levels without corresponding profit growth. The valuation appears to price in Tesla's autonomous driving ambitions rather than near-term delivery growth.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.