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If a Stock Market Crash Is Coming, These 3 ETFs Could Be Smart Buys Right Now

2026-10-04 11:30 •David Dierking •The Motley Fool Positive Axe Cap view: Selective •Rates•Equities •QUAL•USMV•VGIT

Axe Cap view

Hedging JSE Exposure with U.S. Defensive ETFs

Three U.S.-listed ETFs offer protection that JSE investors can use to shield portfolios amid rising global risks.

South African investors fret often about local market volatility and rand swings, but when global uncertainty hits hard, your best defense is not just local blue chips like Naspers or Standard Bank—it’s smart diversification. The iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL) focuses on financially solid U.S. firms that can better withstand economic shocks; this kind of defensive quality is scarce on the local board. The iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (USMV) uses statistical models to reduce portfolio swings—a step beyond picking ‘low volatility’ stocks by eye. This can help soften portfolio drops, especially when the rand weakens sharply versus the dollar. Meanwhile, Vanguard’s Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) offers a traditional hedge through U.S. government bonds, which tend to gain when stocks fall, often coinciding with rand depreciation. Investors should consider these ETFs as external tools to complement JSE holdings rather than replacing them. The view may prove wrong if global markets remain calm or if rand strength rallies JSE shares unexpectedly. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Buy QUAL and USMV for core defensive equity exposure, and add VGIT as a tactical hedge against equity downturns and rand weakness.

What I would watch
  • QUAL
  • USMV
  • VGIT
  • USD/ZAR
What could go wrong
  • Global markets remain stable with limited downside
  • Rand strengthens, reducing the local currency benefit from USD-based hedges
How strongly I feel

6/10

Rather than attempting to predict market crashes, investors should focus on portfolio protection. The article recommends three ETFs: iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF for high-quality companies with strong balance sheets, iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Factor ETF for reduced volatility exposure, and Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF as a traditional equity hedge that benefits from safe-haven demand during downturns.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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