Is SpaceX a No-Brainer Buy Below $120? (Hint: The Answer May Surprise You)
2026-07-28 08:22
•Keithen Drury •The Motley Fool
•••• • Axe Capital view
SpaceX: Tempting But Too Early for SA Investors
SpaceX trading below IPO price looks cheap, but South Africans should wait for clearer fundamentals and more data before jumping in.
SpaceX’s current price under $120, down from $135 pre-IPO, might feel like a bargain. But its main revenue comes from Starlink, a satellite internet venture that’s yet to prove sustainable profits. For South African investors, this is especially relevant—our tech giants like Naspers have shown how early-stage tech bets can go sideways before paying off. Also, soon the insider lockup period ends, likely adding downward pressure as insiders may sell shares. The business’s future in space economy remains speculative and years away. Without more earnings data and a stronger track record, it’s hard to justify rushing in now. The USD/ZAR might react to any blockbuster news, but don’t expect immediate positive shocks. I’d rather watch from the sidelines. this is just my opinion and not financial advice
Avoid SpaceX for now and keep an eye on USD/ZAR for any volatility from tech earnings or liquidity shifts. Focus on well-established JSE stocks with clear earnings like MTN or Standard Bank instead.
- SPCX
- USD/ZAR
- MTN
- Standard Bank
- Insider share sale depresses price further
- Starlink fails to achieve profitability
6/10
SpaceX stock has underperformed since its IPO, trading below $120 compared to its $135 pre-IPO price. While some investors see it as a buying opportunity, analyst Keithen Drury recommends waiting at least a year before investing. The company is currently a telecommunications business reliant on Starlink for over half its revenue, with future space economy opportunities still years away. Key concerns include the upcoming insider lockup period expiration that could flood the market and the need for more financial reports to assess the true business fundamentals.
This article was originally published by The Motley Fool and has been adapted here for Axe Capital Trading News.
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Author: Keithen Drury
Categories: Equities, Earnings, IPOs, Financials
Tickers: SPCX
Sentiment: Negative - The analyst recommends waiting at least a year before investing due to multiple concerns: the stock trading well below IPO prices, reliance on Starlink (a historically underperforming internet business sector), upcoming insider lockup expiration that could depress prices further, and insufficient financial data to assess true business value. The investment thesis relies on speculative future opportunities rather than current fundamentals.
Keywords: SpaceX IPO, stock underperformance, Starlink, insider lockup period, telecommunications, space economy, earnings announcement
Insights:
- SPCX: Negative: The analyst recommends waiting at least a year before investing due to multiple concerns: the stock trading well below IPO prices, reliance on Starlink (a historically underperforming internet business sector), upcoming insider lockup expiration that could depress prices further, and insufficient financial data to assess true business value. The investment thesis relies on speculative future opportunities rather than current fundamentals.
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