Tilray Brands: Is the Stock a Buy at Less Than $4?
2026-10-06 13:15
•David Jagielski, Cpa •The Motley Fool
•• • Axe Cap view
Tilray’s Collapse: Why It’s Not a Cheap Buy Yet
Tilray’s heavy losses and risky pivots make it unattractive despite its low price.
Tilray’s stock price has dropped sharply, from over $20 to below $4, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bargain. The company’s record revenue of $915 million is overshadowed by a significant net loss of $105 million and persistent cash burn of $69 million. Canada’s cannabis market is highly competitive with thin margins, so growth won’t come easy. Tilray’s recent move into beverages seems like a distraction rather than a solution to its underlying problems. South African investors should be wary of this kind of speculative play, which could end up a prolonged value trap. The rand’s volatility against the dollar (USD/ZAR) adds another layer of risk for those looking beyond local stocks. If the cannabis industry were to suddenly stabilize or if Tilray successfully pivots to a more profitable niche, this view could be wrong. For now, the risk-reward ratio looks unfavorable. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Avoid Tilray and similar speculative cannabis stocks. Instead, focus on more grounded JSE plays or USD/ZAR as a proxy for risk appetite in global speculative assets.
- USD/ZAR
- Tilray (TLRY)
- Cannabis industry regulation changes
- Sudden improvement in Tilray’s cash flow and market position
5/10
Tilray Brands stock has crashed 60% this year and trades below $4, down 84% from its 52-week high. Despite record revenue of $915 million, the company posted a net loss of $105 million and burned $69 million in cash. The analyst recommends avoiding the stock due to poor growth prospects, a highly competitive Canadian market, and a questionable pivot to beverages that doesn't address fundamental business challenges.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.