Should You Buy Nvidia Before Aug. 26? Here's What History Says.
2026-07-25 09:02
•Adria Cimino •The Motley Fool
••••• ••• Axe Capital view
Nvidia Earnings: Caution Before the 26th
Nvidia’s AI leadership remains intact, but history warns against buying right after earnings.
Nvidia is unquestionably a dominant player in AI chips, trading at a reasonable 23x forward earnings and still shaping one of the fastest-growing technology themes. For South African investors, the bigger picture is how USD/ZAR could react to Nvidia’s earnings beat or miss, given its tech sector global influence. Historically, Nvidia shares have declined in 8 of the past 13 quarters after earnings, implying the market often prices in high expectations that disappoint short term. This pattern suggests being cautious around the August 26 report if you’re a trader. Yet, for long-term investors, the appeal lies in Nvidia’s expanding AI ecosystem and durable moat. Locally, that could support sentiment toward rand-hedge tech stocks, though direct JSE plays remain limited. The risk is that a surprise strong beat could boost US tech, strengthen USD, and pressure the rand, hurting domestic importers. Conversely, a miss might weaken USD/ZAR and offer a buying window for Naspers or Prosus. this is just my opinion and not financial advice
I would avoid buying Nvidia right before earnings, but consider adding on post-report dips. Exposures like Naspers and Prosus remain good rand-hedge proxies if the rand weakens after earnings volatility.
- USD/ZAR
- Naspers
- earnings disappointment causing short-term sell-off
- USD strength hurting rand and local stocks
7/10
Nvidia remains a strong long-term AI investment despite losing momentum this year. However, historical data shows the stock has fallen in 8 of the last 13 quarters following earnings reports, suggesting investors shouldn't expect a post-earnings gain on Aug. 26. The company is trading at a reasonable 23x forward earnings and maintains leadership in AI chips, making it better suited for long-term investors rather than short-term traders.
This article was originally published by The Motley Fool and has been adapted here for Axe Capital Trading News.
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Author: Adria Cimino
Categories: Equities, Earnings, Technology, AI, Semiconductors
Tickers: NVDA, MU, WDC
Sentiment: Positive - Nvidia is positioned as an excellent long-term buy with strong leadership in AI chips, expansion into related products/services, solid long-term prospects in the $3 trillion AI market, and attractive valuation at 23x forward earnings. However, short-term catalysts around Aug. 26 earnings are historically unfavorable. Mentioned as an AI stock that has outperformed Nvidia this year (up 200%+ vs Nvidia's 11%), suggesting investors have rotated to less-appreciated AI players, but no specific investment recommendation is provided.
Keywords: Nvidia, AI chips, earnings report, stock performance, long-term investment, artificial intelligence market
Insights:
- NVDA: Positive: Nvidia is positioned as an excellent long-term buy with strong leadership in AI chips, expansion into related products/services, solid long-term prospects in the $3 trillion AI market, and attractive valuation at 23x forward earnings. However, short-term catalysts around Aug. 26 earnings are historically unfavorable.
- MU: Neutral: Mentioned as an AI stock that has outperformed Nvidia this year (up 200%+ vs Nvidia's 11%), suggesting investors have rotated to less-appreciated AI players, but no specific investment recommendation is provided.
- WDC: Neutral: Similar to Micron, noted as a memory/storage player that has outperformed Nvidia this year (up 200%+ vs Nvidia's 11%), indicating investor rotation, but no specific recommendation is made.